US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said American households could see unusually large tax refunds early next year, describing what he expects to be a “very large” refund season that could deliver between $1,000 and $2,000 per household for many filers, driven by tax changes enacted mid-year that have not yet been reflected in workers’ paycheck withholding.
Bessent made the remarks while discussing the effect of President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” on 2025 earnings and the 2026 filing season. Speaking in an interview cited by Fox Business, Bessent said the legislation, passed in July, includes retroactive provisions that change what many taxpayers will owe on income earned this year, but that “working Americans didn’t change their withholding”, which could translate into larger refunds when they file. “They’re going to be getting very large refunds in the first quarter,” he said, adding: “I think we’re going to see $100 [billion] to $150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000 and $2,000 per household.”
The comments have circulated widely online alongside posts and headlines that describe the payments as “checks” being “sent out” to households. However, the substance of Bessent’s claim is tied to the normal tax-refund process, not a new standalone stimulus programme. Refunds are issued when a taxpayer’s total federal income tax withholding and payments over the year exceed their final tax liability. The Treasury secretary’s point was that if workers’ withholdings have not yet been adjusted to reflect retroactive tax relief that applies to the current tax year, the difference may appear as a larger refund after the return is filed, rather than as bigger pay packets immediately.
Bessent also suggested that the effect could shift later in 2026, once withholding tables and individual payroll settings catch up. “Then they’ll change their withholding, and they’ll get a real increase in their wages,” he said, describing a scenario in which less tax is taken out of pay after the larger refund arrives, increasing take-home pay going forward.
The White House has echoed the message in recent days. President Trump has described the upcoming filing season as potentially the “largest tax refund season ever”, according to reporting that cited remarks made at a Cabinet meeting earlier this month. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has also promoted the same theme on social media, writing on X that 2026 is “shaping up to be the largest tax refund season” and attributing it to tax cuts for working families passed by Republicans and signed into law by Trump.
Public discussion of refund size often blurs the line between refund totals and the underlying tax burden. A larger refund does not necessarily mean a taxpayer is better off overall than they would have been under a different withholding arrangement. In many cases, it can reflect that more money was withheld from paychecks during the year than ultimately needed, and then returned after filing. Bessent’s argument is that the mid-year passage of retroactive tax provisions increases the likelihood that withholding throughout 2025 will not match the final tax liability for many workers, producing bigger refunds in early 2026.
Tax officials and personal-finance advisers have long warned that refund timing depends on when someone files and how they file, and that refunds are not issued automatically to all households on a single date. A taxpayer generally must file a return to claim a refund, and processing times can vary depending on filing method, identity checks, and whether the return is flagged for review. In the US, the federal filing deadline typically falls in mid-April, but the IRS begins accepting returns earlier in the year, and most refunds are issued within weeks for electronically filed returns with direct deposit, barring complications.
The IRS’s most recent refund statistics underline the scale of annual refund flows. Fox Business cited IRS data showing that in the 2025 filing season the agency issued more than $211 billion in refunds by early April, with an average refund of $3,116 at that point in the season. Later-season figures cited in the same report showed total refunds rising to $311 billion by mid-October, with an average refund of $3,052 across more than 102 million refunds issued. Those numbers reflect the normal refund system and do not, by themselves, confirm a future increase. They do, however, illustrate why even modest changes in withholding patterns or tax liability can translate into very large aggregate refund totals across tens of millions of filers.
Bessent’s claim of $100 billion to $150 billion in refunds in the first quarter of 2026 has also been repeated in other reports covering his comments. Newsweek quoted him making the same estimate, again framing it as a consequence of the July tax law and the fact that many workers have not adjusted withholding since the bill’s passage.
The political context is an intense focus on household finances and cost-of-living pressures. Bessent’s remarks were made as the administration has worked to highlight the consumer impact of its economic agenda and as Democrats have criticised elements of the broader tax-and-spending package. Social media reaction has ranged from enthusiasm to scepticism, with some users mocking the idea of promised “checks” and others arguing that any boost would be welcome, but those reactions do not change the underlying mechanism being discussed: refunds linked to tax filings, not uniform direct payments to all residents.
For taxpayers, the practical implication is that refund size in 2026 will depend on individual circumstances, including income, filing status, eligibility for any new or expanded credits and deductions, and how much tax has already been withheld. Some households could see larger refunds if their withholding exceeded their final liability under the updated rules. Others could see little change, or even owe money, depending on how the law applies to them and whether withholding or estimated tax payments match their final tax bill.
Bessent’s forecast has increased attention on payroll withholding choices, which can be adjusted through employer systems using IRS forms. A larger refund might feel like a windfall, but it can also represent money that could have been received throughout the year in pay if withholding had been set closer to the final tax liability. The Treasury secretary, for his part, framed the expected refund surge as a bridge period, with withholding changes later translating into higher take-home pay during 2026.
